There’s a term that has been circulating in economic development circles for years, mostly in policy papers and academic reports. More recently, it has moved from prediction to reality. For Santa Fe, the Los Alamos corridor, and the communities that make up northern New Mexico, it’s no longer an abstraction.
It’s called the Silver Tsunami. Understanding it and doing something about it is central to why GUIA exists.
What We’re Talking About
The term “Silver Tsunami” describes the unprecedented wave of Baby Boomer business owners reaching retirement age, many without a clear succession plan for the businesses they’ve spent decades building.
The numbers are significant. According to the 2025 U.S. Bank Small Business Perspective Survey, more than half of U.S. small business owners are over the age of 55, yet only 54% have a formal succession plan in place. At the same time, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that by 2030 every member of the Baby Boomer generation will be age 65 or older, with approximately 10,000 Americans reaching retirement age every day.
This demographic shift is creating one of the largest transfers of business ownership in American history. Research from McKinsey estimates that approximately six million small businesses will experience an ownership transition over the next decade. These businesses represent trillions of dollars in economic activity and employ millions of Americans. According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, small businesses account for nearly half of private-sector employment and contribute approximately 43% of U.S. GDP.
The challenge is not simply that owners are retiring. The challenge is that many businesses are not prepared for what comes next.
When a business closes because no successor has been identified, the consequences ripple throughout the community. Jobs disappear. Tax revenue declines. Decades of institutional knowledge are lost. Local supply chains weaken. The businesses that have anchored neighborhoods and defined community character for generations quietly vanish.
For many owners, selling the business is not as straightforward as they expected. Industry experts in business succession and exit planning consistently report that a relatively small percentage of businesses brought to market ultimately complete a successful sale. At the same time, family succession has become increasingly uncommon. While many owners hope to pass their companies to the next generation, only a small percentage of family businesses survive beyond the third generation, and even fewer reach the fourth.
This moment presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Communities that proactively support succession planning, employee ownership, entrepreneurship, and next-generation business leadership have the opportunity to preserve local wealth, protect jobs, and ensure that the businesses built by one generation can continue serving the next.
The Silver Tsunami is affecting every community in America. The question is whether we are prepared to respond before these businesses disappear.
Why This Hits Differently Here
Every region in the country is facing a version of this challenge. But Santa Fe, the Los Alamos corridor, and the communities of northern New Mexico have a particular relationship to it, one that makes the stakes both higher and the opportunity more concrete.
The small businesses woven into the fabric of this region aren’t interchangeable with what you’d find in a suburban strip mall or a generic downtown. They carry cultural history. They are embedded in neighborhoods and relationships that took generations to build. The restaurant that has been a family gathering place for thirty years. The contractor who has been part of this community’s infrastructure for two decades. The specialty retailer or service provider that reflects the identity of a place like Santa Fe in ways that a national chain never could. Not to mention those that moved here, brought their wealth with them and built wealth generating institutions in Santa Fe.
When those businesses close because their owners had no succession plan, or no buyer, or their wealth gets re-distributed to family and kin outside of Santa Fe, what’s lost is not just a job or a storefront. It’s a piece of what makes this place what it is and the wealth that was generated to leave legacies, disappearing.
Northern New Mexico also sits within one of the most concentrated research and innovation corridors in the country. Los Alamos National Laboratory, just 35 miles from Santa Fe, is one of the world’s most advanced scientific institutions, employing roughly 13,000 people and actively supporting small business development through programs like the Feynman Center for Innovation and the New Mexico Small Business Assistance Program. Sandia National Laboratories, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and three research universities round out an ecosystem with extraordinary depth. New Mexico outperforms the U.S. average in overall R&D intensity, a fact that rarely makes it into the story people tell about this state.
That infrastructure creates a particular kind of entrepreneurial opportunity in this corridor: the convergence of deep technical capability, established Main Street businesses, and a community with strong values around local ownership and long-term stewardship. It’s a rare combination. But it requires entrepreneurs who are prepared to step into it.
What GUiA Is Building
GUIA was designed with the full picture of entrepreneurship in northern New Mexico in mind, not just the glamorous startup story, but the full ecosystem of what it means to build and sustain a business in this community.
Our program develops entrepreneurs who can lead businesses, not just launch them. Read about our first pilot cohort and the seven Founders that emerged. We go deep on the fundamentals that succession and acquisition require: financial structure, scalable operations, investor readiness, leadership development, and the ability to articulate a clear and compelling vision to the people who control capital. Our mentors and expert network include people who have been through transitions like these — on both sides of them. Our community-driven model means that participants leave not just with a stronger business, but with genuine relationships to the investors, stakeholders, and fellow entrepreneurs who are shaping this region’s economic future.
We are also explicit about the kind of businesses we are trying to build: ones that create wealth beyond the founder, that build lasting value for teams and communities, and that treat succession not as an exit but as a continuation of something worth continuing.
The window for action is real, and it is finite. The retirements are happening. The businesses are coming to market. The communities that step up with prepared, committed entrepreneurs will retain their character, their economic vitality, and their identity.
GUiA is one answer, built in Santa Fe, for northern New Mexico, with a clear-eyed view of what this moment demands.
If you are a business owner thinking about what your transition looks like , or an entrepreneur who sees the opportunity this moment presents, we want to be part of that conversation. Contact us!
Sources:
• U.S. Bank Small Business Perspective Survey (2025)
https://ir.usbank.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/U-S–Bank-Small-Business-Survey-Finds-More-Than-One-Third-of-Gen-Z-and-Millennial-Owners-Plan-to-Acquire-a-Business-From-a-Retiring-Owner–But-Many-Older-Owners-Arent-Ready/default.aspx
• U.S. Census Bureau: By 2030, All Baby Boomers Will Be Age 65 or Older
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/by-2030-all-baby-boomers-will-be-age-65-or-older.html
• McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility: The Great Ownership Transfer (2025)
https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/the-great-ownership-transfer-a-new-era-of-business-stewardship
• U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy
https://advocacy.sba.gov
